House of Commons Forecast: NDP Collaboration

And so it begins, the second year of Canada's New Government. With the defection of Khan and the resignation of Lapierre, the NDP now holds the balance of power when the Canadian House of Commons goes back into session next Monday, the 29th. What can we expect to see?

Well, we can expect to see three things: Conservative pre-Budget collaboration with the NDP, Conservative budget collaboration with the NDP, and Liberal criticism of the budget.

Since the NDP holds the balance of power, we can expect them to flex a little political muscle and push for a few minor concessions before the release of the budget. Even before the House of Commons comes back, we can see that there has been discussion and that there is a little wiggle room for the Conservatives and the NDP to work together on certain issues. Even if they disagree on certain issues, they can work together to make sure it gets the attention they seek. For example, Jim Flaherty and Jack Layton pulled ATM fees out of nowhere in the last couple of days. Flaherty mentioned that he wants banks to explain to their customers why the ATM fees are necessary, and Layton wants legislation to eliminate the fees altogether. Together, they're making a non-issue into an issue. Whether this is a sign of collaboration to come is up in the air.

A big date that we should look for is March 20th, 2007, when the Conservatives tentatively plan to table their budget. We can expect significant NDP collaboration on this budget in order to keep the Conservatives in the House, especially in the realm of addressing energy costs and the environment. Themes for this budget will likely be: equalization payments and addressing the 'fiscal imbalance', addressing rising energy costs, the environment and the economy. Though not in the budget, we should expect something to be tabled for more bite-sized Senate reform.

The Liberals will keep on doing what they should be doing, criticizing the government left, right, and centre, but will be stewing a little bit inside for being marginalized and deemed irrelevant in this next budget if a compromise with the NDP can be worked out by the Conservatives. Frankly, I'm not sure I care very much what the Liberals think on the next budget - more than likely it will pass with or without them. And if it will pass without them, then the Liberals would more likely than not want to vote against the budget just to save face, condemning the 'right-wing' extreme "neo-conservative ideology" of the Conservative government that is 'so out of touch with the wishes of ordinary Canadians' while continuing to harp on ad nauseum about social justice, environmental sustainability and economic prosperity/development (he does interchange between prosperity and develop once in a while, I'll give him that).

Without a major crisis or scandal, expect to see the Conservatives stay in office through the spring. They're not going anywhere.