Tuesday, February 27, 2007

An Evening with CPAC: The Anti-Terrorism Act Vote

17:45 : The vote should be starting quite soon, I've got milk and cookies, and am settling down for a nice vote with CPAC. Will there be Liberal dissentions in the House? Ah, it's going to be a great vote.

17:52: The vote still hasn't started, those parliamentarians are being tardy. That ding-donging is getting annoying, but I finally understand what that noise in the background of Mike Duffy Live is - MPs are being called to the chamber to vote.

17:55: An opposition motion on immigration and citizenship is underway. Kind of like an opening band, warming up the audience.

17:57: Bloc members begin to stand to vote yea. NDP to follow. It seems like different MPs have different styles. Some like to fake you out by standing at the last second, while others rise together at the last second. Interesting form.

18:04: Ah, the games are beginning - the Anti-terrorism Act vote is starting. Here comes Harper and the front bench.

18:05: Hickup at Jason Kenney, MP from Calgary SW. Gotta love Jason Kenney.

18:07: Ah, well, the Conservatives seem to support the renewal.

18:08: My computer has frozen on the image of Dion. Ah, I'm missing out on the vote! Why, CPAC, why?

18:08: Hmm, back online after I refreshed it, missing the entire front bench of the Liberal Party.

18:15: Well, it's all over. Final score: Yeas: 124 Nays: 159. Can't say the Conservatives didn't try. Ah, back to my Quantitative Methods mid-term studying. It's been great, ladies and gentlemen.

Monday, February 19, 2007

A Fish Out Of Water and New Polls favour Conservatives

Update: New Polls Up from Strategic Council released by CTV about 10 minutes ago - See Below for Results

Dion was never expected to be a very strong leader, but I don't think anyone would have guessed how poor of a leader he would be. Breaking tradition with the previous Liberal government's policy positions, the Liberals are flip-flopping like a fish out of water. Recently, they opposed an extension on the mission on Afghanistan, a mission that they themselves approved in 2003. They're trying to promote the enforcement of Kyoto targets, even though they didn't do anything about GHG since the Kyoto Protocol was signed in 1997. They're vociferously denouncing the politicization of the judiciary through Conservative partisan appointments to Judiciary Advisory Committees, even though the Conservatives are only following Liberal convention. But that's not all: the peak of Liberal hypocrisy is the the stunning turn-around by Stephane Dion and the Liberal over the Anti-Terrorism Act that they championed in 2001.

This particular act is interesting because the Liberal caucus is quite fractitious on this issue. Well known Liberals like Irwin Cotler, Bob Rae, Anne McLellan, John Manley and Roy Cullen are all on record supporting the extension of the provisions in the Anti-Terrorism Act. The Robert Fife blog that I posted below last week appears to have been right in its prediction of the oncoming flow of Liberal discord. There is a good chance that a signficant number of Liberal MPs will dissent and side with the Conservatives on this issue. I could see up to twenty, maybe even up to twenty-nine Liberals voting against the Party Line on this one.

The vote on the Anti-Terrorism Act, originally expected to be this Thursday, has not been called yet. There's going to be a house leadership meeting tomorrow, where it's expected that this will be discussed, and perhaps we'll see a vote this Thursday or early next week. I'm sure that the Liberals want to push it back a little to get their house in order and their caucus whipped properly. Certainly it would be best for Dion - he doesn't need any more evidence shown that he's not a good leader for the Liberal Party of Canada.

The Liberals don't fit very well into the role of an opposition party. They're at their best when they're in the centre, playing brokerage politics and attempting to please everyone. In the opposition, their function is necessarily negative and critical. Dion has failed to define himself as anything than a weak leader who is stuck on the environment issue, and the Conservatives have filled in the rest. Attempting to set the Liberal party from the Conservatives is a good thing, but in doing this Dion and the Liberals have looked like hypocrites by opposing stances that they once vigorously defended.

Another point of discontent within the Liberal caucus is the airtime Ignatieff is getting in Question Period. Some MPs are frustrated that they're not visible enough in the HOC. Some MPs are wondering who the party leader is - Dion or Ignatieff?

New Polls:
Oh, and two more Strategic Counsel polls putting the Conservatives on top:

One note on these polls that I'd like to make before I end this blog is that around 24% of the respondents in these questions didn't know or didn't answer, meaning that there is a lot of growth (and loss) potential for all parties come election time. Oh please, let's not have a Spring election.

UPDATE: Polls Up
,
Voting Intention: Conservatives: 34%, Liberals, 29%, NDP 14%, Bloc 11%, Green 12%
Best Prime Minister: Harper 36%, Dion 18%
Best Vision: Harper 50%, Dion 22%
Most Decisive: Harper 53%, Dion 19%
Most Charismatic: Harper 35%, Dion 20%
Best Environmental Plan: Conservatives: 20%, Liberals 23%, NDP 21%
Handles National Unity Best: Harper 44%, Dion 35%

Monday, February 12, 2007

Dissent, Discontent, Intrigue!

Robert Fife reports on Liberal caucus infighting:

"Trouble inside Liberal Leader Stephane Dion's office. Party insiders say at least two staffers in Dion's office are leaving - only three months after Dion won the leadership. Andre Fortin and Deb Elson are on their way out and possibly one other staffer, sources say. Several MPs have also been grumbling about Dion's office. They say the leader's office has not been fighting back on the Tory attack ads. They also want Dion to get off the enviroment agenda and on to other issues that also matter to Canadians. Some MPs also appear miffed that Deputy Leader Michael Ignatieff is getting so much face time in the House of Commons' Question Period. The sniping from the "nervous Nellies" in the Liberal caucus is partly the result of recent polls that show the Conservatives have edged ahead of the Liberals. "

Combined with the recent SES (Tories 33%, Liberals 33%) and Leger (Tories 38%, Liberals 31%) polls, this is turning out to be a pretty good week for the Conservatives. Another recent SES-CPAC poll for leadership characteristics put Harper ahead of Dion in all categories (lead over Dion in parentheses):

Most Trustworthy Leader: 35% (15)
Most Competent Leader: 41% (19)
Best Vision for Canada: 39% (18)

Right now, polls are a Conservative's best friend.